Why Ignorance Is Bliss In the Stock Market
The other day I was speaking with a friend who’s too nervous to invest in the market.
“I just can’t pull the trigger,” he said. “How can you buy stocks when the Fed is priming the pump, real estate is in a tailspin, the dollar is in the tank, the Euro zone is teetering, the Middle East is a powder keg and Congress – as always – is spending money the way my wife does in Vegas?”
I know just how he feels. After all, like most investment analysts I spend my days marinating in the news cycle. I see all these terrible headlines, often several times a day. It’s hard to turn a blind eye.
But if you want to be a successful investor, you may need to do just that. Let me explain …
The national news backdrop is always unsettling. Americans experienced plenty of good times over the last 80 years, but they were punctuated by recession, depression, inflation, war (including two big ones) and almost limitless scary scenarios.
But, through it all, there’s always been plenty of money made owning the fastest-growing, most-profitable companies in the nation. Everyone knows that the best way to get rich is to own a business making money hand over fist.
Yet if you strike out on your own, you’ll find there are more than a few hurdles. For starters, you need a significant amount of capital to start a business. You have to have a lot of entrepreneurial skill, a talent for dealing with customers, employees, suppliers and regulators. And if you meet these first two requirements, strap yourself in. Because it’s a well-known fact that 85 percent of new businesses fail in the first five years.
Fortunately, you don’t have to have this kind of money or take these kinds of risks to get rich in business. You only need to own shares of companies that are – in the words of my 25-year-old nephew – “killing it.”
I’m talking about companies experiencing double-digit sales growth, sharply higher earnings and fat returns on equity. These companies tend to be innovators, continually launching hot new products and services. (Apple is a prime example.) You’ll find that institutions are taking big positions in these stocks. The companies themselves are often buying back their own shares. And the chart – which shows technical factors like price and volume – generally gets an A+.
It’s called momentum investing. And it works. Just a few weeks ago, for instance, we bought shares of internet security company Fortinet (Nasdaq: FTNT). Last week the company reported a blockbuster quarter. Sales jumped 34 percent. Operating income more than doubled. And the CEO Ken Xie pointed out that the pipeline is full and the company is achieving “significant momentum.”
Our shares jumped over 14 percent in one day. And I see plenty more upside ahead.
Of course, we never would have bought this stock if – instead of looking at the fundamentals of the business – we spent our days worrying about the state of the world.
I’ll let you in on a little secret. As an investor, it’s not your job to envision solutions for the political arena, the world economy, or the financial markets. And that’s a good thing. Because the world is way too big and complicated to figure out anyway.
And it’s not necessary. If you want to make money in the market, forget about the “macro” picture. And focus instead on identifying businesses that are likely to post huge earnings surprises in the weeks and months ahead.
That’s how all the great investors – from Buffett to Templeton to Lynch – did it. And that’s how you can do it, too.
About Alexander Green
An expert on momentum investing, value investing and investing based on insider activity, Alex worked as an investment advisor, research analyst and portfolio manager on Wall Street for 16 years. He now runs the wildly successful Oxford Communiqué, ranked as one of the top investment newsletters by Hulbert Digest for more than a decade. He is also the author of four national best-sellers: The Gone Fishin’ Portfolio, The Secret of Shelter Island, Beyond Wealth and An Embarrassment of Riches. He shares his wisdom in his free daily e-letter, Liberty Through Wealth.